Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Limit - Beware Calling with Obviously Dominated Hands

I pose this question to you:

Suppose you are playing at a low stakes limit table. You're in the SB. There is a raise in early position, followed by a re-raise in late position. Everyone else has folded, and the action is on you. Which of these two hands is better for this situation?

1. Kh9h
2. 8h9h

Strictly speaking, obviously K9 is a better hand than 89. However, in this situation, it is infinitely worse, and here's why:

Think about the range of hands the two raisers could possibly have. Assuming they're not total idiots (which will be the assumption for all "villains" unless I explicitly state otherwise), the initial raiser must have a very good hand (a raise from early position indicates a hand in the neighborhood of AQ+, JJ+), and a re-raise should indicate an even tighter range (QQ+, AK). K9 is absolutely crushed by all of these hands. At best, you're have three outs, and you don't even know which card is the one you want to hit. If they have JJ/QQ, you need your king, if they have AK, you'll need your 9. Realistically, the only way you're taking down this pot is if you hit a flush. Please fold.

On the other hand, if you have 89s, you can make an argument for a call here. Granted, it's a fairly loose call that I wouldn't recommend for beginners, but the implied odds if you make a hand is enormous. Plus, since you have pinpointed their range to high cards, on a board such as 2 6 9 8 T, you can reasonably assume you will win the pot (you're only going to lose to JQ or TT, which are both somewhat unlikely). You have many straight draws, only one of which is particularly dangerous (more on this in a second). In short, you're in a situation where you can easily get out of the pot if you miss, and can win big if you get a helpful board, since there is significantly less guesswork involved.

This hand actually happened earlier today. I had K9h, and folded to the pf raises. The board ended up looking like:

Qs Jh 6c 4h 10d

You might be shaking your head and thinking "See! If you had called, you would've had odds to stick around until the river, and you would've hit your miracle! You missed out on a huge pot."

Hm. Well, had I called, I probably would have been forced to stick around for my gutshot, then my flush draw. However, the really big problem with this is that there is a HIGH probability that one of the other two people has AK. So essentially, I'm drawing dead on that flop to the ranges of hands I described earlier (unless they BOTH have AK and I hit my 9, or if I hit runner hearts). Honestly, is it worth throwing away several bets out of position, without ever really knowing if you're ahead? Please please please fold your obviously dominated hands preflop, they are more trouble than they're worth.

Oh, and for your information, EP villain had QQ and LP villain had AK. How's THAT for dominated?

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