Thursday, January 3, 2008

Why Some Cards That You Think Are Good Aren't

You look at your cards and turn over A9. Looks great, huh? That's a well above average hand. It's reasonably likely to be the best one at the table. So go ahead and get your money in there, right? No. Not so fast. Hands like A9 are money drains if you play them in all circumstances. Here's why:

Barring a miracle flop (better than a pair), what do you hope to see? If you say anything that has an ace in it, you're wrong. If an ace flops, you'll either win a small pot or lose a big one. Anybody putting a significant amount of money in can beat A9. Actually, the best flop for you is a nine-high flop, such as 259. But even here, you're not going to get too much action from weaker hands. And you'll lose plenty of money if someone has a set or an overpair.

The key distinction to be aware of with hands like A9 is this: they are good against the set of all possible hands that an opponent could have. They are bad against the set of hands that most opponents are willing to play. So if you're on the button and it folds around to you, by all means raise to 3 times the big blind with A9. But if you're second to act preflop, fold A9 in a heartbeat.

This same type of logic applies to hands like QT and KT as well. People just aren't usually playing Kx, where x is weaker than ten. So when a king flops, you win small pots and lose big ones.

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