Friday, January 25, 2008

What Does He Have? #1

.50/1 NL, full ring, $100 stacks

Dealt to Hero [Th Tc]
xx folds
xx folds
xx folds
xx folds
xx folds
Hero raises to $3.50
Villain calls $3.50
xx folds
xx folds
*** FLOP ** [9s 5s 2s]

Good news: we're playing a strong hand heads-up, and the flop is all unders
Bad news: we're playing the hand out of position, the flop is all spades (of which we have none), villain is unknown

Well, the proper play here is certainly to bet it hard and see where we stand. The pot is around $7, so a bet of $5 or $6 should do fine.

Hero bets $6
Villain calls $6

OK, so what does he have? Well, let's eliminate some hands first. He will most likely re-raise preflop with JJ-AA, and probably AK also. He also most likely doesn't have rags. Suited connectors are possible, as are underpairs. However, I think we can eliminate 99, 55, and 22...if he flopped a set, he'd almost certainly raise here with three spades on the board, same goes for two pair.

So, at this point, my guesses are something along the lines of 89, T9, maybe 78 or 67, a high spade like AJ, or he could have flopped a flush.

*** TURN ** [9s 5s 2s] [2h]
This is a pretty great turn for Hero, because now hands like 89 are drawing really slim against Hero's TT. Also, if he did flop a flush, he will almost certainly raise Hero's turn bet to protect his hand from a full house. So what should Hero do? The pot is about 20, I'd suggest a probe bet to see where we are and to keep the pot manageable, while still making Villain put more money in if he's chasing a flush.

Hero bets $10
Villain calls $10

So now what do we think he has? The way he's playing this hand, we can almost certainly assume he's chasing a flush, he might have the ace, king, or queen of spades. Hero should not be scared if a blank river hits.

*** RIVER ** [9s 5s 2s 2h] [5c]
OK, well, that river wasn't really a blank, but for Hero's purposes, it is. Think about it, what hand could he have that includes a five or a two? The only one I could possibly guess him having is a suited 56, but he'd be really stupid to call bets with a naked five all the way through this hand. Right now, we're relatively certain that Hero has the best hand. So, what should Hero do?

Let's think through our options. Hero can either bet or check. If we trust our read, any bet here will cause Villain to fold, unless he decides to make a really brave play for the pot. Hero loses out on possible value by betting here. If we check, one of two things will happen. Villain will either check behind, or he'll try to throw out a bluff bet to take down the pot. Let's step into Villain's shoes for a moment and figure out what he's probably thinking.

"What does Hero have that he'd check on the river? He most likely has a hand like AK/AQ with a high spade. I can probably muscle him out of the pot if I make a big bet here. I'm so villainous."

Hero checks
Villain bets $40.50

Villain has just bet $40 into a pot of $37 or so. Does this seem like the kind of bet a person would make if he has a killer hand? Sometimes, you'll run into a player that's clever enough to bet huge with a real hand, but more often than not, a bet of this size indicates a bluff. This should be an easy call for Hero.

Hero calls $40.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Villain shows [Qc 7s] two pair, Fives and Twos
Hero shows [Th Tc] two pair, Tens and Fives
Hero wins the pot ($118.50) with two pair, Tens and Fives
Remember, it's very important to think about what types of hands our opponents are likely to have. By thinking this through step-by-step, Hero just took down a big pot without very much grief.

No comments: